Worksheet Templates. Sunday , January 28th , 2018 - 21:27:40 PM
When coming to the share of future toll revenues, Dave gets creative. The company has never done this before and both the toll fares and actual volume of traffic over the bridge are unknown. In a separate tab in his cash flow worksheet, Dave creates two grids. The first is a range of car traffic volumes from 10,000 to 30,000 cars per day (the volume range used by the engineers to build the bridge). He applies a growth rate multiplier and extends the grid to the right for 10 years, multiplying each time step by a growth multiplier. He then builds a similar grid of toll fees and toll growth rates and arrays them to the right for 10 years. Finally, Dave uses his Excel statistical analysis add-in to generate a probability distribution of toll revenues for each year. Dave creates 5 scenarios based on the mean toll revenue, with revenues varying plus and minus one and two standard deviations to get 5 estimated cash flow paths.
On the revenue side, Daves past experience with the City of Metropolis and similar projects indicate payment will come in 3 large chunks, then a revenue share of the bridge tolls for 10 years. The 3 large payments are what ESP is bidding on, and they need to cover the costs of each phase. Dave also adds a variable profit margin above costs. Using this profit margin as a variable, his goal is to estimate the lowest margin ESP can charge above its costs to ensure NPV exceeds the companys standard project bidding hurdle rate of 12%.
Because here is the catch: next time you hear yourself saying "I wish I had more money" ask yourself what are you doing about it. Most people do not have an answer to that question, so they spend their time wishing. Over and over, the statement is said with no action.
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